My Blog

Posted: 02 January 2007 at 9:53am |                                           Global Malaysians Forum : Business and Professional Networking  Topic: KLCI 2007 - 1200, 1330 or Beyond?

Happy New Year to all fellow Malaysians, everywhere!

With a good roti canai/nasi lemak and teh tarik and glancing thru the newspapers… I can’t help but say that the local press has spiced up with nice storylines this morning! Is it too good to be true? KLCI at 1,200 is the common theme, 1,330 the big resistance, and/but why not pass that barrier? I’ll be doing my own study tonite to meet tomorrow’s dateline for a story in The EDGE’s first issue of the year!

Well the journalists and expert panelists have had their say….. what about you guys/gals out there? Surely we have our own perceptions — don’t fret spill it out… who knows perhaps some of our prognoses could very well be on target far better than what the experts are thinking. Let end-2007 be the judge — come on share your thoughts.

Remember that the people-in-the-streets can’t be all wrong, and the experts were not always right in their prognoses. Perhaps the SC should come up with some kind of award to recognise the unsung heros…. some may turn out to be more heroic than the experts.

Mark my words! All d best!

__________________
ARIFIN ABDUL LATIF
Deputy Director (Crops Seed Quality Control), DOA |
Senior Consultant, ArifinLatif Consulting.
Freelance Consultant on Forecasting Econs/Stock Market Trends; ICT; PVP 0166094170

Posted: 20 December 2006 at 9:32am at Global Malaysians Forum : Business and Professional Networking

The Tom Yam Effect - Again?  http://www.globalmalaysians.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1148&PN=1

Dear Fellow Malaysians/GMN forumers,

What do you all made of yesterday’s news from Bangkok…? Reminiscent of the start of the Asian financial crisis of 1997/98? The papers are reporting various viewpoints… as for me I have my own — trying to write now (hopefully in time for this week’s My Say column in The Edge Malaysia).

My off-the cuff comment as of now is that DON’T FRET as the equation is not the same this time around. For one, Thailand is trying to curb the Baht appreciation - an exact opposite of 1996/97. First impression can be deceiving though. Bursa shall rebound in response to the knee jerk reaction yesterday.

The other irony is this: whilst Tun Dr M and Mr George Soros have ’shake hands’ (they have just did that a few days ago!)… the next thing the Baht ‘fumbles’ (in the eyes of the Thai authorities)…. kind of funny that a strong currency is not wanted??? We in Malaysia, we wish for a stronger RM. Of course there’s always the export/import argument for a stronger/weaker currency…. either way but at what level? I guess, like water, it will find its own level.

What say you guys & gals?

Edited by arifin34 on 20 December 2006 at 9:45am

__________________
ARIFIN ABDUL LATIF
Deputy Director (Crops Seed Quality Control), DOA |
Senior Consultant, ArifinLatif Consulting.
Freelance Consultant on Forecasting Econs/Stock Market Trends; ICT; PVP 0166094170

Posted: 07 December 2006 at 8:43pm | Global Malaysians Forum : Business and Professional Networking at: http://www.globalmalaysians.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1129&PN=1&TPN=1

Have you all heard about AGLOCO™ ? Critics called it a reincarnation of the bubble-era AllAdvantage.

I have somehow registered as ‘one of the early ones’ without really making a deep analysis…. only this evening I managed to do just that! What intrigues my imagination is the number of referrals & extended referrals I have chalked up so far (incidentally I was ranked in the top 0.74% of all members — not bad at all!). Hopefully the many people who have joined in will reap the benefits along the line, soon.

For those who wish to have a go at it I suggest Googling thru the internet. For a start read the online news from VentureBeat — titled "AGLOCO launches — will pay you to surf the Web". Yes, they actually promised to reward users/ referrals with either shares or cash! AGLOCO is already working to list on the London AIM stock exchange (?), so they claimed. Sounds like the ‘dotcom era’ song being played up again? (as with AllAdvantage). You might say I’m "loco" to believe this. Actually I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt (Eight Stanford MBAs have joined them — surely that’s something to take note).

It’s free anyway — nothing to lose but everything to gain (if that happens then then the non-believers are the real "locos"!).

So, read on from the storyline at: http://venturebeat.com/2006/11/20/agloco-luanches-wants-to-pay-you-to-surf-the-internet/. The rest I leave it to you all to digest and perhaps act on it asap!

All the best fellow Malaysians, wherever you are — perhaps our friends in the States can shed more light. TQ.

Posted: 04 December 2006 at 10:19am | at: http://www.globalmalaysians.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1125&PN=1

The discovery of an ‘ancient’ part of a supposedly Portuguese fort wall in Malacca is a refreshing news indeed…. so perhaps the famous remnants of ‘A Famosa’ fort is just a tip of the iceberg! I wouldn’t call the discovery something ‘ancient’ though — its just a glimpse of 16th/17th century Malacca. In fact the Malacca Sultanate site(s) is(are) more ancient, but not so if compared say, to the Kota Gelanggi story (btw, what has become of its research?).

I’m not a historian but I loves history. I hope this new discovery of the fort (and its artefacts) will spur more interest among the new generation of Malaysians. Presently our kids just read history for the sake passing their exams, or may I say to score an A1 or A2! That’s just not enough for us to inculcate the true importance of understanding our own history — and writes about them, professionally. A recent debate of the development of Penang is another case in point — e.g. where does Jannaton fits into the picture of Dato’ Keramat, Sir Francis Light, or even some earlier Chinese settlers (perhaps left behind from one of Admiral Zheng He’s voyages?).

Just one more point to start the ball rolling (hopefully), I am intrigued by the fact that most of the things left standing in Malacca city today are that of the Dutch influence (perhaps by Ruud van Nistelroy’s great, great grandfathers…?)…. could it be that they have demolished the Portuguese city (there goes Luis Figo’s great, great grandfathers’ "contribution"?) en route to stamp their greatness over Malacca’s entrepot in the 17th century? As it is now it seems that the old cities are being built layer after layer…. with ‘Figo’ lying below ‘Ruud’. Am I totally wrong here with this assumption?

Historians out there…. please educate us on this. TQ….

Posted: 24 November 2006 at 10:39am | at: http://www.globalmalaysians.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1109&PN=1

Dear Fellow Global Malaysians….

Remember the swift takeover of Guthrie on the London Stock Exchange in 1981? The takeover allowed us the return of ownership of some 200,000 acres (800 km²) of agricultural land back to Malaysians. It caught my imagination then, which soon followed with me doing a Masters thesis at ANU back in 1983-85. Its been 25 years (yes, they could have celebrated a silver jubilee by now!) and now, as Kumpulan Guthrie (majority stake owned by PNB) is poised to play a pivotal role in a mega merger between plantation companies under the PNB stable of companies.

"The merger of Sime Darby Bhd, Kumpulan Guthrie Bhd and Golden Hope Plantations Bhd will create one of the largest palm oil companies in the world, with a total planted area of close to 525,000ha," says one c

ommentary. In fact they are now out there debating on the key benefits and risk of the proposed merger….. who’s right or wrong is another matter.

Question: What do you all think? (Never mind what the experts/journalists/ analysts are saying) — your ideas, fellow ’smaller’ Malaysians, are worth noting.

My first thoughts were:   "Synergistic benefits should outweigh risk factors. The whole issue of economies of scale alone and being on the global radar in global equities markets are not strong enough. If all these can (should) be translated into optimal/greater efficiencies in operations at the plantation level, then its a worthwhile mega play (Just use IOI Corp as a benchmark in efficiency - we don’t have to look elsewhere!)."

Secondly:  There goes the CEOs…. or are they going to be retained them? Too many ‘Sinbads’ can sink ships in 1,001 ways…..

Thirdly:  To the SC/Bursa, Please take good care for the minority shareholders of the companies concerned. The small players should be rewarded in the best possible way (Don’t let the experience of the IPO for TH Plantations be repeated! Even though the Govt wants the ordinary people, LUTH depositors, to benefit as well…. yet the main bulk of them in smaller towns missed the opportunity!!!! And its trading around at RM2.50 now, compared with the IPO price of RM1.25 then).

TQ.

Posted: 18 June 2005 at 2:28pm | at: http://www.globalmalaysians.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=169&PN=2&TPN=3

To all Malaysians Everywhere… we have an e-commerce portal (AgriBazaar) in agriculture up and running since 2003, and was fully endorsed by the Prime Minister himself last year with his tireless political will attached to the initiative. Please surf us at https://www.agribazaar.com.my — FREE registration for anyone interested to do business in agriculture & agro-based industries. A brief article, "AgriBazaar a growing success" appears in The Edge Malaysia (NetV@alue2.0, June 13 issue) — will be posting an online version soon. Meantime, some excerpts on the initiative are available from http://agrolink.moa.my/doa (Dept of Agriculture Malaysia’s website).

Help your countrymen conduct their agribusiness globally. They need to spread their wings abroad, regionally and globally, especially within the WTO/AFTA trading environment. All Malaysians can do your bit and become traders/agents/ jv partners yourself; or at least act as ambassadors for our country’s pursuit to revitalise our agriculture sector into a ‘third engine of growth.’

Appreciate comments and trading offers (business opportunities, etc.).

TQ & All the Best to All Malaysians out there… in the global jungle!

Posted: 09 August 2006 at 9:37am | at: http://www.globalmalaysians.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=826&PN=2&TPN=3

80% of EPF members investing in unit trusts lost over RM600 million? Gosh…. how come this thing happens?

Please correct me if I’m wrong: Isn’t it supposed to be a safe-haven for bona fide investors? Anyway that’s what the professionals have been harping on all these while - as against investments based on charting strategies.

Of course investing in today’s markets can be far more volatile and uncertain than it is used to be. But after all these years where are the so-called ‘risk management elements’? Are they really in place?

Theoretically speaking people in the investment fraternity, replete with their respectable degrees, manning such investments shouldn’t be so grossly wrong in their investment strategies. Perhaps they would argue that one should be looking at a longer time horizon and accept whatever losses as ‘paper losses’! I don’t know, to me a loss is still a loss, and one could be buying back more units with the same amount of money put up-front.

I wonder what the authorities can do, or should do, to these ‘licensed professionals’? If a non-licensed fund manager were handling such amount of money, and losses, the authorities will be quick to get them! Come on, for God sake (and the poor EPF contributors) please BE MORE STRICT to these fund (not fun) managers!

Once I have tried to try my luck to join in as an investment analyst but was shun away ‘cos ‘I’m not tested!’ (So I gave up and promised myself that one day I’ll prove those guys wrong!). So, the point is now: HOW WELL ‘TESTED’ ARE THOSE PROFESSIONALS? Full stop.

Posted: 16 May 2006 at 8:42pm | at:
http://www.globalmalaysians.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=712&PN=1

Dear fellow Malaysians everywhere…

Here’s something down memory lane…. lest we forget. Its nice for us to value our past, live harmoniously today and chart a rosier future for our next generation… have a peep at these two links:

http://agrolink.moa.my/doa/1892article.html

http://arifin.fotopages.com/?entry=332215&back=http://arifin.fotopages.com/?page=0

NOTE:   The only other source (I have come across) of this Malaysiana memorabilia is in Cornell University library! Even our National Museum doesn’t have it?????

God bless Malaysia…. and Malaysia Boleh!

Posted: 09 July 2005 at 11:59pm | at: http://www.globalmalaysians.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=365&PN=1&TPN=13

Dear Malaysians Everywhere,

Appreciate discussions/comments/rejoinders on my article which was published in The Edge Malaysia’s issue of July 4, 2005 - entitled "My Say: Is US$60 a barrel here to stay?"…..

"Surging world oil prices are the norm nowadays, irrespective of whether one wants to believe that speculative mania is at play. Today, our economic masters are pointing their fingers at speculators…."

For the full article pls click on http://www.theedgedaily.com/cms/content.jsp?id=com.tms.cms.article.Article_e6a5f23d-cb73c03a-126ba640-fa5c2dcb

TQ.

[Arifin Abdul Latif is an economic chartist based in Kuala Lumpur].

Posted: 24 June 2005 at 10:53am | at http://www.globalmalaysians.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=260&PN=1&TPN=21

. . . . W  E  L  C  O  M  E     T  O     M  Y     W  O  R  L  D . . . .                    Freelance Consultant on Analysis & Forecasting of Economic & Stock Market Trends

To all Malaysians Everywhere… join me for an intellectual discourse on the Analysis & Forecasting of Economic & Stock Market Trends…. you can surf my websites at….

http://arifin600000.tripod.com/ | http://arifinlconsulting.tripod.com/ | http://arifinstockeconfcsts.tripod.com/ | http://arifinedgearticles.tripod.com/ | http://arifinabdullatif.tripod.com/

Appreciate comments and business/investment opportunities, etc….

TQ & All the Best to All Malaysians out there… in the financial jungle! Au revoir!